09/14/2004 Entry: "The Ban Expires"
Posted by Maynard @ 11:42 AM MST

The Ban Expires

The "Assault Weapon" Ban is dead, and it should stay dead. Now that we have legal access to cosmetically modified weapons, let's all go out and buy them.

Assuming we can afford them, of course.

The ban expiration is being heralded by its opponents as a great thing (which it is) that will bring down the prices of high-capacity magazines and other previously banned features.

It will not.

Remember your basic economics, folks. The demand side just skyrocketed. The supply side is short. Not everyone will be able to get the magazines and add-ons that they want. Some will have to pay inflated prices, or wait until supply (from manufacturers) increases. The following chart illustrates the effect.

The numbers from past years are made up but are loosely based on remembered figures from that decade. Note the spike in price after the ban took effect. This was due to supply drying up. Now that the supply is legally allowed to grow, you would expect the curve to drop. But don't forget that the increased number of gun owners, coupled with the preexisting gun owners demand, will drive prices up by exhausting supplies prematurely.

Of course, the expected peak is entirely presumed. It could very well be that manufacturers are ready to meet demand. But don't expect it, at least immediately.

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