01/26/2004 Entry: "Those New Hampshire folks can really pick the winner"
Posted by Maynard @ 11:21 AM MST

Those New Hampshire folks can really pick the winner

Fox just posted a story listing the top two finishers in New Hampshire presidential primaries for the past 25 years. Turns out that when you examine the race for the non-incumbent party, the winner of the primary hasn't won the nomination since 1988, and even then that winner lost the general election. It was all the way back in 1980 when the non-incumbent race picked both the nominee and the winner.

2000
Republicans: Sen. John McCain: 49%; George W. Bush: 31%
Republican Nominee: Bush

1996
Republicans: Pat Buchanan: 27%; Bob Dole: 26%
Republican Nominee: Dole

1992
Democrats: Paul Tsongas: 35%; Clinton: 26%
Democrat Nominee: Clinton

1988
Democrats: Michael Dukakis: 36%; Rep. Dick Gephardt: 20%
Democrat Nominee: Dukakis

1984
Democrats: Sen. Gary Hart: 37%; Vice President Walter Mondale: 28%
Democrat nominee: Mondale

1980
Republicans: Reagan: 50%; George H.W. Bush: 23%
Republican Nominee: Reagan

Given all this, why is the press making such a big deal out of such an inaccurate bellwether? If I was Howard Dean, I would be shooting for second in NH. But then, he's crazy enough to try and beat John "F'n" Kerry. So since I'm pulling for Bush, should I be pulling for Kerry 1st and Dean 2nd?

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