06/24/2003 Entry: ""
Posted by Maynard @ 11:36 AM MST
I'm sure this post will get me banned in China, but ...
Of the three founding members of the Axis of Evil, only two remain: Iran & North Korea. Now that Iraq has been forcibly removed from the Axis one wonders who will take its place. There are several candidates, the chief ones I'll cover here. We'll probably deal with Iran & North Korea first, but the sinful nature of man means that there will always be a "target rich environment".
China
One-fifth of the world's population and they still think that communist control of a free market can lead to economic prosperity. Tiananmen Square was 13 years ago, but don't think that governments that do that to their people last forever. The only question is, will the Chinese government get overthrown from within or from without? My bet is on internal revolt. Low probability of engagement.
Syria
Lessee: they let Iraqi Baath party members flee to their country and have been accused of storing WMD for Iraq. Is George W. Bush willing to let a neighbor of Israel obtain WMD from a fallen Iraqi government and destabilize the region? High probability of engagement.
Cuba
Cox & Forkum have a good read on Castro. George can just authorize the Marines at Gitmo to open up a can of whoopass. The people there want freedom so much they are willing to risk death to get here. Why should we give them an incentive to risk dying when it would be much easier to just liberate them where they are? Medium probability of engagement.
Libya
Daffy Qaddafi got smacked down by Reagan, but the blood of Pan Am 103 is still on his hands. He's desperately trying to appear low-key, but like a North Vietnamese General in the sights of Carlos Hathcock, don't expect him to last very long. Medium probability of engagement. And speaking of Vietnam ...
Vietnam
If you thought 'quagmire' was an overused word in our expedition in Iraq, just wait till we deal with this nation led by an oppressive regime. Winners are historically unlikely to change their tactics, and losers historically do. If we go in with our modern tactics and the Vietnamese stick to their old guerilla war, expect something similar to Iraq: quick victory followed by minor but tragic incidents. Low probability of engagement.
Of course, what do all these countries have in common? They're all either dictatorships or communist nations. It should come as no surprise that the nation that birthed modern freedom should be opposed to the system that has killed, brutalized, and repressed more people in the 20th century than any other.
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