10/05/2002 Entry: ""
Posted by Maynard @ 12:44 PM MST
On Snipers and Sniping
The Washington DC suburb area has been terrified the past few days of a sniper running rampant throughout the area, picking off targets at random with deadly accuracy. However, as the facts develop and the investigation continues, several things are sticking out as being very curious to me.
First, his/her choice of weaponry.
The police are reporting that the sniper used a .223 caliber weapon from long range. This could have been deduced from recovered bullets. The diameter of the recovered bullet would give them the caliber, while the amount of expansion would give them an estimate of range. Bullets mushroom when they impact flesh, and the closer they are to the weapon that fired them the more the bullet mushrooms, because there is more energy in the bullet. At greater distances there is less of a mushroom effect. Presumably, the bullet was not totally flattened, so the forensics unit deduced a long-range shot.
With a .223? That is what is odd. A .223, although a good small caliber round, is not terribly good at long ranges. It is small, compared to other rounds, and does not pack a large wallop a long ways down range. A professionally trained sniper would choose the round that is best for the tactical situation; large caliber for long range shooting where hitting a hostage is not a concern, or smaller caliber for closer work where hitting a hostage and over-penetration (of a wall or similar object) is a concern. That the criminal chose a .223 makes me think that they are not professionally trained, just well-read.
Also, the press is reporting in certain places that the weapon used could have been an AK-47. I do believe they mean an AK-74, since the -47 is a .30 caliber weapon. the -74 is a 5.56 mm caliber weapon, which is about .22 caliber. However, the 5.56x39 (millimeter) cartridge is not a sniper-grade cartridge. The 39 refers to the overall length, and that cartridge has a low powder capacity, which translates into low bullet speed and range, which means less accuracy. Snipers love accuracy, so I think the perpetrator is using something other than an AK-74 (or a derivative of it). But the -74 makes for good video, since it looks like an assault weapon. my guess is that they are using either an enhanced AR-15 (the civilian version of the M-16) or a prarie dog gun, which has a small caliber and long range capacity (say, around 500 yards).
Not that 500 yards is a short distance for an amatuer, though. It covers 785,397.5 square yards of surface area, putting the victim at the center of a circle with radius of 500 yards. It is a very long distance when seen through a rifle scope. Most sniper scopes have what is called a mil-dot reticle, which is a series of dots superimposed on the typical crosshair pattern. It is a range estimation tool developed by the U.S. Military and used by both the Army and Marine Corps. The distance between two dots (one "mil") on one of these scopes covers a shade under 18 inches at 500 yards, which is a tremendous amount. Without practice it is difficult to accurately put five shots into one mil at that range, although you can get lucky with one shot, sometimes. Professional snipers (read: U.S. Military) are trained to hit accurately and repeatedly at ranges up to and including 1000 yards, with .30 caliber weaopnry.
So much about the perpetrator's rifle. The fact that the only witness saw two men in a white van is a little disturbing. Serial killers do not operate in teams, historically. They operate alone. Professional snipers operate in teams of two, one acting as a scout and one as a shooter. Secondly, professionals are selective about their targets. They do not shoot a guy and then hit the one sitting next to him and then the next guy. They wait. Patiently. Like these perpetrators. Their targets are carefully selected to cause the maximum amount of psychological and operational damage to their enemy.
But everything changes in a civilian environment. There, any target causes significant psychological damage. People become afraid to walk out their doors. There is no operational capability that needs to be impaired, no leaders to eliminate. Just random targets, chosen for no apparent reason other than to give the sniper the feeling of God-like powers over his or her chosen victim. Deep and dark issues rule the mind of these perpetrators, and I do not envy the police in their quest to find them. Snipers train themselves to be invisible, and if they don't want to be found they will take every measure possible to avoid detection. My guess it that these two are either Al-Qaeda terrorists (unlikely but not impossible) or two very obsessed home-grown lunatics.
My prayers are with the police, because they'll need Divine help to find these two.
